Sunday, April 23, 2017

2017 French Presidential First Round

Today's the big day. I imagine the supporters of the top four candidates in polls will stay put, if they go to the polls. Do supporters of the 5th and 6th candidates, clearly out of the running, change sides, and for whom? Mélenchon would stand to get a good chunk of Hamon's voters (the PS base), though the two pro-EU centrists could get some of those. Dupont-Aignan's supporters are anti-EU so they can choose between Le Pen or Mélenchon if that's their main issue. Mélenchon just needs a few more points to get into the runoff. He would stand to have more motivated voters, Big Mau ('momentum' in English) on his side, and a good shot at the undecideds.

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