Wednesday, February 8, 2012

What's most striking looking at the new primary results and polls is how poor the pro-war Republican field is. I had thought last year that Romney may give Obama trouble in the Midwest, but Romney is polling terribly in the Midwest. He was born in Michigan because his dad was an auto executive but he's not likely to carry Michigan in November. He was governor of Massachusetts and has next to no chance at carrying Massachusetts in November. He really brings nothing helpful to the electoral map for the Republicans and is carrying red states that Gary Bauer may be able to carry after a televised nervous breakdown. Tonight's beauty contests show how poorly he runs without a major spending advantage, like dropping $17 million in Florida. He'd have to win four out of five out of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Virginia, and Florida to beat Obama, and barring a major current event or presidential scandal that's starting to look highly unlikely.

With the Catholic-Evangelical mix of Missouri and no Gingrich, Santorum handed Romney a 55%-25% whipping. As noted above, Missouri is a purple battleground state in November. Minnesota is 28% Catholic, 21% Evangelical: Santorum beat Romney 45%-17%. Both are similar to Iowa. This may be the point where scrutiny visits Santorum that he can't bear, but the Evangelical base goes back and forth between candidates whose qualification is that they are not the other one.

Ron Paul beat Romney in Minnesota by ten points, taking second, and has moved into second place nationally, eight points behind Romney, having had much less coverage and advertising. Both he and Santorum have risen five points in a month while Romney and Gingrich have lost a point in that time.

No exit polls so you don't get to hear me summarize the mindset of right of center groups of people.


  1. "Is Gingirch or Santorum going to be viewed more favorably in a month? How could that possibly happen?"
    I guess we'll find out in two days. Santorum matches up well against both Romney and Obama (sort of) because he has that normal guy sheen. Non-sheen. He can accuse other people of being elitists and it seems plausible.

  2. Hey, I think we have found the scenario where he could gain five points of support. Romney hasn't spent money on negatives against him because he wants him to take votes from Gingrich. I just Google Newsed Santorum and all of the coverage is positive. If Santorum were nominated people would actually organize on Obama's behalf in a way they wouldn't against Romney. In a Republican field people are afraid to take his wacky, hateful ideas to task because they may lose more votes than Santorum.. a McCain may have the cajones to do so but not Romney and Gingrich..