2017 French Presidential First Round

Today's the big day. I imagine the supporters of the top four candidates in polls will stay put, if they go to the polls. Do supporters of the 5th and 6th candidates, clearly out of the running, change sides, and for whom? Mélenchon would stand to get a good chunk of Hamon's voters (the PS base), though the two pro-EU centrists could get some of those. Dupont-Aignan's supporters are anti-EU so they can choose between Le Pen or Mélenchon if that's their main issue. Mélenchon just needs a few more points to get into the runoff. He would stand to have more motivated voters, Big Mau ('momentum' in English) on his side, and a good shot at the undecideds.

2020 US Democratic Presidential Hopefuls' Statement on Syria Air Strikes Scorecard

Clear disapproval of air strikes
1. tulsi gabbard
2. chris murphy
3. liz warren

Not approving them, vague statement, no clear acceptance of Assad’s culpability
4. cory booker

Muddled reluctance to approve air strikes
5. julian castro
6. mark cuban
7. kirsten gillibrand

Approval of air strikes, further action needs congressional approval
8. jeff merkley
9. bernie sanders
10. chris coons
11. al franken
12. joe manchin
13. tammy duckworth

Approval of air strikes
14. martin o’malley
15. sherrod brown

Enthusiastic approval of air strikes
16. amy klobuchar
17. john kerry
18. bob casey

Enthusiastic approval of air strikes before they happened, calling Putin “worse than Hitler," inept candidacy and response to legitimate ethical and legal questions making Trump president
19. hillary clinton

I was surrounded last night with people, from different walks of life, who are outraged about Trump's victory, and what I heard is ultimately the hope that arises from this election. The media has done a great trashing job on Trump, albeit for the wrong reasons. America is hyper-aware of race and has their eyes open about this victory. All blacks I met were solemn, and out in low numbers. One thing I said was 'it would be great if the president did the right thing and we could all sit back, but there is unity in opposition.' That is the hope that I derive from this week.

What terrified me was the free pass Hillary was getting from the media and others, stifling popular opposition to her policies. Trump is in it for himself and will go down in flames like many before him. Hillary has the whole machine behind her. The most terrifying thing about Trump on policy grounds is that he and Paul Ryan will get together on deregulation, and whatever unpredictability comes with the Donald. If they go after Social Security than the Dems will make them pay. Progressives have to make the Dem establishment pay as I wrote in July.

Liberal talking heads have misunderstood Trump's rationale for establishing relations with Russia, which is a result of Michael Flynn having his ear. Flynn also opposes the Iran deal, a more negative influence on Trump. I don't idolize the guy by any means, but Hillary's foreign policy advisers were arguably more frightening than W. Bush's.

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